The Over/Under 2.5 Goals Column: North London derby to produce goals once again
Ed Nicholson carries on trying to find the value in Betfair’s Premier League over/under 2.5 goals markets. This week goals at the Emirates and Goodison Park seem to be on the cards.
“Six of the last eight Highbury/Emirates Stadium North London derby matches have ended with three goals or more, and we know that when Harry Redknapp brings a team to play Arsenal goals tend to flow. That 4-4 last year was preceded by 3-1, 2-2, 4-0, 3-0 and 1-1 results against Arsenal when Harry was in charge of Portsmouth.”
Arsenal v Spurs
Last year we recommended backing the over 2.5 goal option in this fixture at 1.76, and this year there seems no reason to suggest anything other than another bet on the overs, even though it is as short as 1.60.
Arsenal are averaging over four goals a game at the Emirates, while Spurs would be leading the Premier League if only results on the road counted.
Harry’s team have scored 11 times away from home this season – only Arsenal have scored more goals on their travels. Spurs have also conceded eight times despite only losing once away from White Hart Lane this term.
Six of the last eight Highbury/Emirates Stadium North London derby matches have ended with three goals or more, and we know that when Harry Redknapp brings a team to play Arsenal goals tend to flow. That 4-4 last year was preceded by 3-1, 2-2, 4-0, 3-0 and 1-1 results against Arsenal when Harry was in charge of Portsmouth.
Despite drawing 2-2 with West Ham at Upton Park at the weekend, Arsenal created plenty of chances – but they are still conceding too many.
The Lilywhites may have lost at home to Stoke on Saturday, but they created 12 shots on target and ten shots off target. Last season in this fixture they created six chances on target, scoring four – whereas the Gunners had twelve shots on target for their four goals.
Both Spurs and Arsenal had disappointing results at the weekend, and although the momentum for both teams has been momentarily halted, the motivation to get back on a winning run and to perform well in the North London derby will mean a full blooded encounter. Both sides look a little unsteady at the back; both teams have players desperate to tie down regular starting places, and it is difficult not to see goals here.
Recommendation
1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 1.60
0.15pt 1-1 @ 10.0
Everton v Aston Villa
Last season we successfully predicted a high scoring game (over 2.5 goals) and were rewarded with a 2pt profit at generous odds of 2.88. And there’s every chance of another high scoring encounter this time around with players from both teams in fine goal scoring form albeit at much shorter odds.
Three of the last six encounters between these teams at Goodison Park have resulted in over 2.5 goal affairs, with last year’s 2-3 being a classic contest. Steve Sidwell scored after just 34 seconds and despite going in 1-1 at half time Everton lost the game with some poor defending late on. The Toffees had no strikers to call upon having had to contend with injuries (hence the inflated price for the overs) and they played with just one up front – 20 year old Victor Anichebe. Villa played their usual side – Young, Agbonlahor, Milner and Barry all started.
This time around Everton enter the game having been beaten 3-2 by Bolton and no team have conceded more goals at home this season in the Premier League than Everton with nine, while Villa have conceded the fewest goals away from home (4). Everton created 12 SOTs at the Reebok, while in their last three games they have managed to create 33 SOTS (five v Wolves, 17 v Stoke and 11 v Blackburn).
Recommendation
1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 2.06
0.2pt 1-1 @ 7.2
Fulham v Liverpool
Fulham continue to play well, and deserve plenty of credit for coming back from 2-0 down at Eastlands last weekend. At home the Cottagers remain difficult to penetrate – just four goals conceded in four home games. However they don’t score too many either – just four this term at Craven Cottage.
Liverpool meanwhile proved against Man Utd that they are still capable of beating the best. Fulham will defend vigorously and although Fernando Torres is enough to frighten any defender, a well drilled Fulham defence should keep him relatively quiet.
Recommendation
1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 1.90
Man Utd v Blackburn
Blackburn were made to look like a second division football club against Chelsea at the weekend, and with more squad players coming down with a bug, the odds are that Sam Allardyce will have to field a weakened side on the back of a 5-0 demolition ( Chelsea created 15 SOTS).
But United are not looking at their potent best at present, and given that Blackburn will be concentrating on defence, and therefore unlikely to breach United’s back five, the 2.62 on unders is the bet here.
Recommendation
1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 2.62
0.15pt 3-0 Man Utd @ 8.2
