The Over/Under 2.5 Goals Column: Goals in Sunday’s “Grand Slam” match
Ed Nicholson goes about his usual business of trying to find the value in this weekend’s Premier League over/under 2.5 goals markets.
“…if the Blues play their normal game I can see them scoring at least twice here. But United are too good a side not to make chances and potentially score at least once here.”
Chelsea v Man Utd
We’re over a quarter of the way into the 2009/10 season, and after 11 matches Chelsea and Man Utd head the Premier League table. Now these two heavyweights face each other at Stamford Bridge with one side scoring for fun, whilst the other struggles for goals.
Chelsea have scored 15 goals in the their last four competitive matches – with goals coming from a number of sources (although Didier Drogba has admittedly scored 33.33% of that total) while Man Utd have managed to hit the net on just six occasions in their last four games.
I have been disappointed with the offensive play of United this term; they usually create a number of chances even if they don’t score that many – and they haven’t been doing that this term.
Rooney and Berbatov head the United goal scoring rostrum as you would expect but I feel it is only time before the midfield players start to score more.
Last season we went with a play on the overs at 2.32, and saved on the 1-1 at 7.2 which is how the match ended. United are still shipping goals at the back, while Chelsea are scoring for fun, and if the Blues play their normal game I can see them scoring at least twice here. But United are too good a side not to make chances and potentially score at least once here.
Recommendation
Chelsea have goal scorers in form and I feel they are a good bet to score at least once here. If Man Utd do go 1-0 down they will have to attack and that will either see them score or open up the game even more for the Blues. 2-0 is a real possibility but over 2.5 goals with a saver on the 1-1 is the percentage call in my mind.
1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 2.16
0.20pts 1-1 @ 7.4
Wolves v Arsenal
Wolves are not as tough to beat at Molineux as they have been in years gone by. Last season in the Championship they lost just three times, and they conceded more than one goal on just four occasions. This time around in a better league they have already lost two of their five home games, winning just once – but they are still not conceding too many – just six goals in five matches.
But those matches have come against West Ham, Fulham, Hull, Portsmouth and Aston Villa. There’s every chance that at least two of those will be in a relegation dog fight come May, so facing a rampant Arsenal and not conceding at least twice will be a huge task.
Cesc Fabregas and Robin van Persie are looking sharper every time they play, and given other offensive options in Sami Nasri, Eduardo, Bendtner and Andre Arshavin I really can only see goals here, especially as Arsenal are still susceptible to defensive errors.
Recommendation
Arsenal should score twice, and if Wolves do manage to penetrate the Gunners rearguard early in the game I doubt the match will fail to produce three goals or more. However, the 0-2 is a real possibility.
2pts Over 2.5 goals @ 1.70
0.25pt 0-2 Arsenal @ 8.2
Man City v Burnley
Burnley have yet to register any points away from home and are conceding on average 3.4 goals a match away from Turf Moor. Man City meanwhile have struggled away from home recently, but on their own turf they should collect three points here. But the question is whether they can reach three goals in total? Burnley must be slightly odds-against to score, so although there is always a chance they will – especially against a defence that looks far from stable – I couldn’t recommend a bet on over 2.5 goals by itself.
With the knowledge that Emmanuel Adebayor may start for City, the percentage call must be to back City to win by at least two goals, so we’ll play the saver on the 2-0 and a bet on the over 2.5 goal option as well, although I am a little worried that City could shut up shop should they score their opening goal late on in the game.
2pts Over 2.5 goals @ 1.66
0.33pt 2-0 Man City @ 7.4
