Horseracing Betting: Keep it simple, back the Star to shine
leven Grade 1 wins and still they doubt him. The layers have been out in force ahead of Kauto Star’s eagerly awaited reappearance at Haydock this Saturday, but Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham feels they could be cruising for a bruising as the best staying chaser of modern times bids for his third success in the £200,000 Betfair Chase.
“But would you really want to be laying the best staying chaser of modern times at odds against in a race where Timeform give him 14lb and more in hand of all his eight rivals?”
Keep it simple as Kauto bids for his third Betfair Chase success
If he brings his A game he wins. And if he brings his B game then he still might win.
That’s the swift way of summing up the mighty Kauto Star ahead of the Betfair Chase at Haydock this Saturday and, for all the words and newsprint which will be expended on his return to action, there is only one key question punters need to concern themselves with.
And the crucial question plainly relates to what price he ought to be. Some people, including many in the media, seem to start from the position that short priced favourites cannot represent value.
But would you really want to be laying the best staying chaser of modern times at odds against in a race where Timeform give him 14lb and more in hand of all his eight rivals?
I certainly wouldn’t. Testing conditions have been cited as the main barrier to Kauto Star’s success, but the course was far from being a bog when I worked the dog in a solo spin there on Thursday and, in any case, Kauto’s record in the mud hardly suggests he doesn’t handle deep ground.
Irish raider Notre Pere relishes the mud and remains open to improvement, but Haydock’s tight new chasing track might place more emphasis on speed than is ideal for him.
Madison Du Berlais commands respect given that he has improved massively since cheekpieces were fitted, while Ryanair Chase hero Imperial Commander looks the interesting longshot given that he’s open to improvement and can possibly be excused for his previous defeats over this trip.
However, this looks a case of Keep It Simple, Stupid. Kauto Star has much the best form on offer and looked better than ever in pulverising good horses when last seen in last season’s King George and Gold Cup.
At the time of writing he can be backed at 2.16 on Betfair. And I reckon he ought to be more like 1.7 or thereabouts.
Diamond could be a girl’s (and boy’s) best friend in the 2.20
The running order for Saturday’s RUK broadcast at Haydock has just arrived and, horror of horrors, it reveals that we are on air from the ungodly hour of 11am.
With that in mind it’s best to get cracking with a few ideas on the rest of the card.
The first result I am rooting for is for racing to go ahead as I snapped up some 1.4 and 1.3 about the meeting beating the weather.
Only a Saturday morning monsoon can scupper that wager from where I am sitting and, having studied all bar the last race in some depth, the following thoughts occur.
1: The opener at 12.15 should be dominated by Pepe Simo and Any Given Day. Much depends on how they bet, but Any Given Day’s handicap form looks very solid and he looks the marginal value option with the McCain horses in such fine fettle.
2: The 12.45 is trappy but Sa Suffit and Saphir Des Bois both catch the eye. Sa Suffit is a bold jumper with little mileage on the clock who looks bound to make his presence felt this winter, while Saphir Des Bois has been a shade hit and miss since arriving in Britain but ran a cracker at Cheltenham in the spring and will be all the sharper for a recent spin over hurdles.
3: The 1.15 looks a classic bludgeon against rapier job between Mr Thriller and Starluck. The latter is mighty impressive on the bridle, but Mr Thriller is a relentless galloper and well in after bolting up off an official mark of 144 at Chepstow. Two and a half miles plainly suited him there, but he’s bound to be ridden aggressively here and any further rain can help him draw the sting from Starluck’s finish.
4: What the hell is a bumper doing in the middle of such a cracking card? I appreciate it’s probably a logistical issue related to moving portable obstacles, but it doesn’t half break up the rhythm of the day. PS: I have no clue what will win it.
5: Diamond Harry and Burton Port look the two to focus on in the 2.20. Ruby is an eye-catching booking for Burton Port, who should relish this step up to three miles. And the case for Diamond Harry revolves around the belief that he is just a very good horse. His sole defeat thus far came in a white hot Ballymore Hurdle and I suspect that an official mark of 149 could be well within his capabilities.
Murphy’s Law is all well and good…..if you are against free speech
You would have to walk a long way to find a trainer who knows the ins and outs of his business better than Ferdy Murphy.
Granted, he can sail perilously close to the wind in the way he brings many of his horses along steadily, but few can match him when it comes to preparing a horse to peak with the big day in mind and his upbeat nature and approachable media profile make him a very easy bloke to warm to on the whole.
However, the Middleham handler’s reaction to comments made on RUK by Jonathan Neesom and Lydia Hislop in this week’s Weekender left me shaking my head in disbelief.
The comments made by Neesom and Hislop related to a horse called Frosty Lad, who finished eighth on his hurdles debut at Market Rasen two weeks ago.
For what it’s worth, my reading of Frosty Lad’s performance from what could be seen on the video was that it was no more or less eye-catching than those recorded by dozens of jumping newcomers every week at this stage of the season.
But that’s of less importance than the Murphy response. Thankfully, the Middleham handler didn’t resort to the tired old “how many winners have they ridden” argument.
However, he did suggest that reporters who express critical remarks should be removed from their jobs and that the RUK duo would do well to take a leaf from the books of “incredibly knowledgeable” colleagues like Richard Pitman, John Francome and Robert Cooper.”
Now I would never dream of suggesting that Ferdy’s idea of a perfect racing pundit centres around some trusty old pal who wings each performance based on a quick skim through the Racing Post and a trusty treasure trove of clichés.
But I would suggest that the trio of pundit paragons he refers to are a hundred to one with few takers about ever rocking the boat when it comes to highlighting horses who have been ridden with another day in mind.
Granted, a see no evil, hear no evil and speak no evil mentality would suit some trainers (and owners) just fine.
But would it suit the wider racing public in the long run? I very much doubt it.
