Serie A Betting: Napoli to put Ballardini out of work
Dave Farrar talks us through the best bets in Serie A this weekend and this time round they don’t feature any of the teams at the top of the table – starting with Lazio’s trip to Napoli.
“Lazio’s four defeats in their last five games, and the make or break nature of this game for Ballardini, will pile the pressure on the visitors, and Napoli are absolutely rock solid at what is too big a price.”
NAPOLI v LAZIO
It’s definitely Davide Ballardini’s last chance as Lazio coach on Sunday afternoon, as his team faces the huge task of winning at the San Paolo to save him. It all looked so good for Lazio when they won the Super Cup and their opening two league fixtures, but five draws and five defeats since then mean that Ballardini is staring into the abyss.
If he had to choose a ground on which to save himself, the San Paolo would probably be last on the list. Napoli, for all of their frustrating inconsistency, are excellent at home, and they have improved significantly under the steadying hand of Walter Mazzari.
Napoli’s last home game was the incredible injury time comeback against Milan, and so you can expect the crowd to be right behind their heroes, something which isn’t always the case here. Lazio’s four defeats in their last five games, and the make or break nature of this game for Ballardini, will pile the pressure on the visitors, and Napoli are absolutely rock solid at what is too big a price. I’d be tempted to back them conceding a goal on the Asian Handicap as well, as I believe that they may send Ballardini on his way in some style. But let’s stick to a sound investment at an excellent price.
RECOMMENDATION NAPOLI to beat LAZIO @ 1.9
ROMA v BARI
We’ve learned already this season that Bari are a team who simply have to be supported away from home, particularly against the bigger name teams in the division.
Their impressive, highly organised style has already got them draws at Inter, Milan, Sampdoria and Palermo, and there’s no reason why they can’t do something similar in the Olimpico this weekend. I was impressed with the way that Roma battled to a draw against Inter last time out, but even though Francesco Totti is back to galvanise them, the absence of Daniele De Rossi will weaken Ranieri’s team in central midfield, an area in which Bari are particularly strong.
Bari have injury problems ahead of this game, but I wouldn’t worry about that too much, as they’ve struggled to keep a fit squad all season, and it hasn’t stopped them achieving some excellent results. The question is how best to build a punting approach to this game. I’m keen to lay Roma at 1.74, and that’s certainly one way to go, but I’m also interested in Bari to win at 6.2, and given the likely nature of the game, Bari are massive to win 1-0 at 18.0.
But the other price that probably provides the best value of all is under 2.5 goals inexplicably being made the outsider in that market at 2.1. Bari don’t score or concede many and only two of their games have featured over 2.5 goals this season. Given that Roma are not the open attacking team that they were under Spalletti, this is a price that’s too good to miss.
RECOMMENDATIONS Lay ROMA against BARI @ 1.74
BARI to win 1-0 @ 18.0
Under 2.5 Goals in ROMA v BARI @ 2.02
LIVORNO v GENOA
Genoa play some of the most attractive football in Serie A, and they travel to a Livorno side which is struggling desperately for form. Genoa have struggled away from home this season, and there is a case to be made for Livorno being able to snuff them out with their rather dour style of play. But I’m prepared to take the chance that a fresh and well-rested Genoa will be far too good for Livorno and that the price of 2.5 which is currently available about an away win, will end up looking like a bit of a steal come the end of the weekend. It won’t be my biggest bet of the Serie A fixtures, I’ll reserve those for Napoli and Bari, but a Genoa win is definitely a bit of value.
RECOMMENDATION GENOA to beat LIVORNO @ 2.5
