Cheltenham Festival 2010: Where now for the big horses?
It’s been one of the worst winters in decades and the snow and ice has now interrupted numerous festival prep races. Wayne Bailey takes a look at who’s likely to go where as the Cheltenham build-up continues…
“I would definitely welcome the opportunity to have runners in some two-mile races at Dundalk, once I could get there. Let them put on the races and see what entries they get. If it doesn’t work out then try something else.” (Jessica Harrington)
I hate to start off my articles on a negative note, but I have to have a moan about Horse Racing Ireland’s decision not to stage any racing at Dundalk’s all-weather course during the recent bad weather. I wrote about this in the Irish Independent newspaper on Saturday and I don’t want to sound like a broken record – but the fact that our all-weather track remains closed during the winter almost seems like some sort of Irish joke.
Horse Racing Ireland feel that there wouldn’t be enough flat horses to sustain a winter calendar but I’ve spoken to a number of jumps trainers and owners that would love to let their horse stretch their legs on the level – and I reckon HRI would be surprised by the number of entries if they’d only try it out.
If it doesn’t work out just scrap it, but it’s this unwillingness to try something new that bothers me and does nothing to help the old-fashioned image of the sport. I’m not proposing that we go down the banded route and have racing just for the sake of it, but there’s been no action in Ireland since January 2 and who knows what way the weather will turn out over the next month or two.
Not all trainers are in agreement with Willie Mullins saying that he wants to give his horses jumping experience so a flat race would be of little benefit, but others such as Jessica Harrington are keen on holding all-weather fixtures in Ireland: “I would definitely welcome the opportunity to have runners in some two-mile races at Dundalk, once I could get there. Let them put on the races and see what entries they get. If it doesn’t work out then try something else.”
One of the top jumps trainers Noel Meade has already had 60 runners at Dundalk since it opened and I think it’s worth a try – even if it is only one or two meetings per month. In fairness to HRI, they did race up until December in 2008 and they didn’t attract many entries – but with the snow and ice this year, things would surely be different.
In the UK, one of the higher profile casualties of the weather recently was the Welsh Champion Hurdle, but the short-priced favourite for that race Punjabi now looks set to make his way to Dublin for the Irish Champion Hurdle instead. Henderson was clearly disappointed that Ffos Las won’t be rescheduling, but at least he’s got another option before the festival.
Paul Nicholls hasn’t been too badly affected by the weather as some of his stars will head straight to the festival without a run. Denman wasn’t due to race this month and still plans to take in the AON Chase at Newbury – but he’ll have to put in something extremely special if he’s to knock Kauto off the top of the market following that Kempton performance.
Master Minded has only recently returned to training following treatment for a cracked rib and it could be a struggle to get him fit for the festival so he won’t have a prep run. I thought Big Buck’s may have went for the Cleeve Hurdle but it now seems likely that he’ll also go straight to Cheltenham too. The defection of Big Buck’s from the Cleeve has prompted Tom Mullins to enter Oscar Dan Dan, a horse who ran with credit in defeat to Powerstation in the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown.
Another option for Oscar Dan Dan is the three-mile conditions hurdle at Gowran Park but once again, the ground may be poor due to the weather and a trip to Cheltenham would be more revealing. He’s not a significant player in the ante-post markets, and is not expected to come near Big Buck’s – but I know that Tom Mullins thinks highly of the eight-year-old and is hoping for a big run in March nonetheless.
The plan for Sizing Europe was to go straight to Cheltenham but I see the layers have installed him as favourite for the Irish Arkle at Leopardstown and there could be a change of heart. He may have won the Bord Na Mona With Nature Novice Chase at Leopardstown over the Christmas, but luck was on his side and Captain Cee Bee was looking very menacing before crumbling at the last. If you throw Somersby into the mix, the 2010 Arkle Chase could be a cracker.
Somersby’s trainer Henrietta Knight has also been let down by the weather and had hoped to get a run into the six-year-old sometime in January – but this now seems unlikely. After this year, Knight hopes the gelding can go down the staying route which should prove interesting. She hasn’t made a final decision yet, but she may give Somersby a race sometime in February.
Dunguib trades at 2.5 on Betfair for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle but some bookmakers are taking no chances and already have him as low as 2.38. I’m extremely excited about this horse and it now looks likely that he’ll go for the Deloitte Hurdle at Leopardstown next month. A good performance in Dublin will see his prices slashed even further and for many, he’s already seen as the ‘banker’ horse of the festival.I’m around long enough to have seen plenty of Irish bankers flop in the novices’ race, but if running to form, Dunguib will be extremely hard to beat.
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