Bundesliga Betting: Seriously poor value about Bayern Munich
“Magical” Matthew Walton urges us to look elsewhere than the 1.6 about Bayern Munich to win the Bundesliga this year and tells us why the winner market isn’t the only place they’re poor value…
“This situation also highlights a perennial problem with Bayern. Rarely are they available at a backable, let alone a value, price. Expected to win the title every year the layers automatically have them have them short – too short. Currently the Bavarians are priced at 1.60.”
With a season-long unbeaten record, a two point lead over their nearest rival and the ability to boast both the best attack and the best defence in the Bundesliga, there’s a good chance that Jupp Heynckes’ Bayer Leverkusen side might just have enough about them this season to land a first ever league title.
Added to that, the fact they’ve already played three of their four nearest challengers away from home (Bayern Munich, Schalke and Hamburg), possess the country’s leading scorer (Stefan Kiessling) and have the easiest run-in of all their competitors makes their current price seem generous – to say the least.
Leverkusen currently trade at 5.1 making them a value bet in their own right to win a first Bundesliga title or solid back-to-lay material if recent history repeats itself and ‘Neverkusen’, as they have be christened in some quarters, once again fail to last the pace (the club have posted four runners-up finishes in recent years).
Of course, to land a first German title they will have to hold off the determined efforts of the chasing pack. Schalke (12.0) lie just three points adrift of the leaders and should they hold onto the much sought-after Kevin Kuranyi they can be counted as a real danger. Two points further back, Borussia Dortmund 26.0 might have too much ground to make up but any side which has won the last six straight games has to be noted whilst Hamburg (22.0) lie two more points back – seven points off top spot – but don’t appear to carry quite the same threat under Bruno Labbadia as they did with Martin Jol at the helm last season.
But of course, any talk of German football is heavily influenced by one’s opinion of Bayern Munich. It’s not been plain sailing of late for FC Hollywood as in the past three years a series of head coaches – Felix Magath, Otmar Hitzfeld, Jurgen Klinsmann, Heynckes himself and now Louis Van Gaal - have failed to make the team the totally dominant force they once were in the Bundesliga. Six titles in the past decade is no mean achievement but given their wealth and stature in the game, it arguably should have been more.
Currently they head the outright market but, as stated above, their landing of a 21st title is far from being a formality. Last season’s pacesetters, 1899 Hoffenheim, fell away and still Munich lost out in a blanket finish to Wolfsburg – this season Leverkusen not only look to be made of sterner stuff but there are also several other sides still in the hunt.
This situation also highlights a perennial problem with Bayern. Rarely are they available at a backable, let alone a value, price. Expected to win the title every year the layers automatically have them have them short – too short. Currently the Bavarians are priced at 1.60.
And even within the matchday markets, for example concerning this Saturday’s game with FC Mainz, it’s easy to spot loopholes in various trading positions.
The outright win itself is an obvious starting point. In the last five seasons, at home, Bayern’s record is P95 W63 D15 L7. That’s a win ratio of 66% which equates to average odds of 1.50 meaning they simply shouldn’t be 1.21 against a side, like Mainz, who lie 8th in the table.
Delving a little deeper we’re being asked to take 1.47 about there being over 2.5 goals in the game when this season that’s only happened in 5/10 matches i.e. 2.0. Similarly, Munich to lead at half-time/full-time is 1.66 on the exchange when it has only occurred in 3/10 games i.e. 3.33.
It’s a scenario which can frustrate those who wish to pile on the supposed ‘champions elect’ but for the more pragmatic punter, who will happily shop around for good value bets, the constant over-betting of Bayern provides all manner of investment opportunities.
And whether it’s in relation to the outright Bundesliga winner or in weekly domestic action the same logic applies … backers of Bayern beware!
