The Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Seriously over-priced “overs” at the Emirates
Ed Nicholson casts his analytical eyes over this weekend’s Premier League over/under 2.5 goals markets and finds a good bet in the big match of the weekend.
“Arsenal have scored 34 goals at home in 23 games, conceding 11 times, while Man Utd have scored 22 times on the road, conceding 11 times. The Reds’ stats are very impressive in relative terms as they are the second best attacking and defending records of any side playing away in the Premier League this season.”
Arsenal v Man Utd
When Arsenal take on Man Utd in North London, goals flow. Four of the last five head to heads have ended in over 2.5 goal affairs, including last year’s contest which finished 2-1 in Arsenal’s favour.
Last year Arsenal came to this fixture having scored 12 goals in their last five North London Premier League games, while they had shipped seven goals. This time around Arsenal have scored 14 goals in their last five games in front of their own fans while they have conceded just four goals, two against Bolton and two against Everton.
Man Utd have scored nine goals in their last six North London visits and having beaten Man City during the week I expect them to be in positive mood for this crunch game. Wayne Rooney is scoring freely at present and looks capable of winning games for the Reds all on his own. Four goals against Burnley was followed by him scoring the all important winner against City in the Carling Cup and as we have said time and time again, when a striker has confidence and the players around him have confidence in him, goals tend to come; many strikers score goals in clusters, and Rooney is a classic cluster goal scorer. I would suggest he is odds-on to score on Sunday.
Arsenal have scored 34 goals at home in 23 games, conceding 11 times, while Man Utd have scored 22 times on the road, conceding 11 times. The Reds’ stats are very impressive in relative terms as they are the second best attacking and defending records of any side playing away in the Premier League this season. However, they have lost four of their 11 games away from Old Trafford, while Arsenal have lost just once all year in front of their own fans. In their last ten games United and Arsenal have scored 50 times and conceded just 14 times between them. Goals have simply got to be scored on Sunday afternoon
I expect this game to played at a very fast pace, as their encounter at Old Trafford was earlier in the season, and the midfield may well get very busy with not much space to operate in. This I feel will play more to Arsenal’s strengths as the likes of Cesc Fabregas and Andryi Arshavin can thread passes in crowded areas and have a knack of finding previously ‘unfindable’ space. A lot has been made of Fabregas’s fine goal scoring record this season – he’s scored five goals in his last five matches – but Arshavin also has an impressive 15 goals to his name in 38 starts for the club. But both players can also acts as playmakers as well, weaving telling passes and assisting in many of the Gunners’ goals over the last twelve months. United’s midfield, although strong and combatitive don’t have this dual role. They are all too similar, while Arsenal now have a bit of steel in their midfield to counter the creativity. All this means that midfield goals are likely from Arsenal, and less likely from Man Utd. But United have the most potent striker in the country at present who may well be playing against a weakened Arsenal defence as Sol Campbell is on standby to replace Thomas Vermaelen. But United will also have to face Arsenal without one of their defensive stars as Rio Ferdinand is banned, and it’s important that the Reds can call upon Nemanja Vidic, who apparently has recovered from an injury problem. But Vidic does tend to lose his head a little in these big games.
Recommendation
2pts over 2.5 goals @ 2.00
0.40pt 1-1 @ 7.4
Burnley v Chelsea
Chelsea are very strong at present and although we managed to get the 3-0 saver on the midweek game against Birmingham, I think we were lucky as Chelsea could have scored five or six, especially as they scored two goals so quickly. I had thought Birmingham’s defence would have done better against them, so I do not hold out much hope for a clearly worse Burnley defence. Chelsea are looking very strong – all over the park – and the cluster goal scorer that is Frank Lampard is on a nice run of goal scoring at present.
I was most impressed by Chelsea’s movement midweek and you can see goals coming from all over the team – and now that Didier Drogba is back, it hardly makes things worse. Chelsea have scored 18 goals away from home in 10 games, while they have conceded 10 times. Burnley have managed to score just 14 times at Turf Moor this season. This game is a classic 0-2/over 2.5 goal strategy.
2pts over 2.5 goals @ 1.73
0.5pt 0-2 @ 6.6
