Premier League Betting: Liverpool v Everton
Jaymes Monte looks at a Merseyside derby which rather surprisingly sees both teams enter unbeaten in the league this year, will something give or will the draw maintain both sides’ record? Best Bet: Lay Liverpool @ 1.9
“There will always be an inflated interest in the bookings markets for local derbies and that can quite often throw up a value bet here or there. Betfair and betting is all about opinion so going against the grain and against the popular consensus can often conjure up some big prices. “
It was unfathomable to think that I could make this following statement just a couple of months ago, but, both teams come into this game in good form. Liverpool are now unbeaten in their last six Premier League games whilst Everton haven’t tasted defeat in the league since the meeting between these two sides at Goodison Park nine games ago.
An injury list longer than the Nile appeared to have wrecked Everton’s season almost before it had begun, but their recent run of form has catapulted them up the table and a win at Anfield would put them six points behind Liverpool with a game in hand. If they can keep a clean bill of health for the remainder of the season – which would only be fair in an idealistic world of perfect equilibrium – then the 9.0 on them to achieve a top six finish might be worth a few quid.
On the other side of Stanley Park, although Liverpool are unbeaten in six league games I am still unconvinced that they have turned their season around. If we look a little closer at that six league game period we see that the two FA Cup games against Reading and draws against Stoke and Wolves are interspersed among them. Until they can string together a number of back to back wins I will continue to oppose them at odds on prices against tough opposition like Everton.
And odds on is what they are here, at 1.9 they are simply too short for my liking, especially given that this is a local derby. However, Everton haven’t won at Anfield since the 1999/2000 season so backing them at 4.9 doesn’t exactly instil me with confidence either, six draws in their last ten visits suggests either backing the draw at 3.6 or laying Liverpool at that 1.9.
Tim Cahill and more specifically Tim Cahill’s head receive a large amount of credit for The Toffees’ recent upsurge. The rediscovery of his goal scoring form is a huge boost to David Moyes along with the shoring up of their defence which has now kept three clean sheets in a row in the league. That might be a cause for concern for Rafael Benitez as his side have struggled in front of goal all season and have in fact failed to score more than two goals in a game since the final weekend in September. Backing Under 2.5 goals at 1.83 looks to be the logical play with a saver on Cahill to score anytime at 4.5.
There will always be an inflated interest in the bookings markets for local derbies and that can quite often throw up a value bet here or there. Betfair and betting is all about opinion so going against the grain and against the popular consensus can often conjure up some big prices. There was only one booking in the reverse of this fixture and with ‘9pts an above’ priced at 1.5 for this match it has to be worth taking on, also a sell of the booking points at anything around the 50.0 mark is certainly worth a small interest.
If Liverpool can win this one then maybe we can start to believe that their season is taking a turn for the better, but I believe that this is a great opportunity for Everton to get back amongst the hunt for a Europa League spot.
