The Over/Under 2.5 Goals Column: A low-scoring Merseyside Derby
Ed Nicholson’s attentions are turned to Anfield, the Stadium Of Light and Old Trafford this weekend as he goes about trying to decipher which matches will be “overs” and which will be “unders” this weekend.
“Four of the last six encounters have been under 2.5 goal matches at Anfield, with an average of just 1.66 goals per game and the way Liverpool have been playing, this looks nailed on to be another low scoring contest.”
Sunderland v Wigan
The Black Cats looked a very poor team on Monday night when they limped unimpressively to a 0-0 home draw with Stoke – a side, remember, who have scored just four away goals all season.
The whole lacklustre performance was too similar to many other recent Sunderland Premier League games and with just one win in 14 games, Steve Bruce’s side are in freefall and quite frankly look incapable of scoring more than two goals in any match.
Darren Bent and Kenwyne Jones did not link up at all – Jones especially being made to look very ordinary by Stoke’s defensive players. But it was their lack of creativity from midfield which surprised me the most – I lost count how many hopeful long balls landed miles away from a Sunderland player – while their crossing was also incredibly wayward.
In total the Black Cats managed just five shots on target (SOTs) while they managed just one shot off target (SOFFS). This follows an equally poor performance against Everton at Goodison Park when they got themselves three SOTs and two SOFFs and that 7-2 drumming at Stamford Bridge – they did get two goals, but from just three SOTS.
This Saturday they host Wigan, and with Bruce facing his former team you can rest assured he will let his players know how important this match will be to him. This fixture has traditionally been a low scoring affair – four of the last five encounters have been under 2.5 goal contest and there must be every chance that it will be so once more.
Recommendation
1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 1.85
Liverpool v Everton
This is one of the fixtures I always search for when the new list comes out each season as it usually produces fewer goals than the mass public think and if both teams are playing in a certain way, it can be a decent unders option contest.
Four of the last six encounters have been under 2.5 goal matches at Anfield, with an average of just 1.66 goals per game and the way Liverpool have been playing, this looks nailed on to be another low scoring contest.
With Liverpool just not firing at present and Everton sure to come here looking to secure a point at least, there may be some nervous players on the pitch. In fact, Everton may fancy their chances of an upset. Both managers know how much this means to the fans and both will not want to lose the game, maybe before actually wanting to win it. Everton can score goals away from home as their total of 15 from 11 matches shows, while Liverpool have managed a healthy 30 at home this term. However, the Reds have scored just 11 times in their last 10 games.
Recommendation
2pts under 2.5 goals @ 1.89
Man Utd v Portsmouth
This match represents only my second three-points bet of the season as per my staking plan. Portsmouth are demotivated, but all their players will be up for the challenge and the opportunity to prove themselves to potential new employees against one of the best teams in Europe may mean they start the game in a positive mood. However, against Man City their heads dropped as soon as they went 1-0 down and in my opinion City rather let them off the hook as a three or four nil looked probable rather than possible last Sunday. A match City ended up winning just 2-0. It may well be that the same fate awaits them at the Theatre of Dreams on Saturday.
Five of the last six contests between these two at Old Trafford have ended either 2-0 or 3-0, with the other being 2-1 – so a play on the overs and a saver on 2-0 is suggested.
Recommendation
3pts Over 2.5 goals @ 1.55
0.75pt 2-0 Man Utd @ 6.4
