The Bettorlogic European Injuries And Suspensions Column
Martin Demichelis misses Bayern Munich’s match this weekend through injury as do other key players from around Europe. Bettorlogic tell us how their absences can affect proceedings.
“Demichelis has been at Bayern since the 2003/04 season and has developed into one of the Bavarian giant’s most important defenders in that time, and since the start of last term has played 41 and missed 17 of Bayern’s games. His record has been good, Bayern winning 66% of games with him compared to 47% without.”
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Bettorlogic have compiled a report using our player analysis tool Player PRO highlighting the most important players that are likely to be missing across Europe’s major leagues this weekend.
NB Player appearances are based on a player starting and completing at least an hour of the match unless otherwise stated. The sample is based on a team’s home and away league matches since the start of last season unless otherwise stated.
Koln v Bayern Munich
Martin Demichelis
Argentinean centre-back Martin Demichelis’ injury while on international duty in midweek has given Louis van Gaal a defensive headache for their trip to Koln this weekend with his squad light on cover at the back. Demichelis is likely to be out for three weeks after fracturing his eye-socket, cheekbone, and upper jaw in Argentina’s 1-0 win over Germany.
Demichelis has been at Bayern since the 2003/04 season and has developed into one of the Bavarian giant’s most important defenders in that time, and since the start of last term has played 41 and missed 17 of Bayern’s games. His record has been good, Bayern winning 66% of games with him compared to 47% without – their average points per game falling by 19%, from 2.17 to 1.76. Indeed, his return to the team earlier this season sparked Bayern’s surge up the table, as after they’d won just five of their first 11 games – all of which Demichelis missed – they’ve won 11 of 14 since then without losing.
The former River Plate star has missed nine of 28 away games since 2008/09 and that’s seen a 40% increase in average goals conceded – up from 0.95 per game with Demichelis to 1.33 without – and they’ve been level at half-time in six of their nine matches without him.
Bayern’s whole style might be compromised by Demichelis’ injury and their lack of top-class cover and they look far too short at 1.45 to continue their recent impressive form. We’d consider laying them at that price, whilst also backing the half-time draw at 2.54 – this match looks set to be closer than expected.
Round-up
Siena v Parma
Davide Lanzafame became the first player suspended as a result of Serie A’s crackdown on blasphemy and given Parma’s recent away record of five consecutive losses their players could do with the Lord being on their side for their latest road trip.
Lanzafame has played six of Parma’s matches this season and is yet to taste defeat after three wins and three draws. In contrast Parma have taken just two points from their last nine matches without him, during which they’ve failed to score on five occasions compared to finding the net in all six of Lanzafame’s games.
Siena have won two of their last three matches and given Parma’s problems should make it three in four at 2.30 and improve their survival chances that looked so slim just a few weeks ago.
St Etienne v Lille
Lille’s hopes of mounting a challenge for the title this season look to have been hit hard by the loss of their star forward Gervinho. The Ivorian is the third highest scorer in Ligue 1 this season and in the 18 matches he’s played for Lille since his summer move from Le Mans they’ve won 12 times with just two defeats, while without him Lille have lost five of eight games (W2-D1-L5) – their PPG falling from 2.22 to just 0.88. Given the goal threat that Gervinho presents, it’s no surprise to see Lille’s average goals-scored virtually halve from 2.22 per game with him to just 1.12 without.
St Etienne have beaten both Bordeaux and Montpellier on their home turf this season and look an excellent price at 3.75 to win again, whilst St Etienne -0 on the Asian Handicap at about 2.50 looks to have plenty of up-side to it.
Hoffenheim v Mainz
Isaac Vorsah is out for Hoffenheim for the next six weeks after damaging knee ligaments in their 2-0 win at Hertha Berlin last Saturday, while another first-choice defender Marvin Compper also picked up a knock that looks likely to keep him out this week.
Ghana’s 2007 “Defender of the Year” Vorsah has played 21 of 58 games for Hoffenheim since the start of last season and with him, Hoffe have conceded 12% fewer goals per game than without – down from 1.41 to 1.24. Similarly, in the eight matches that Compper has missed in the same time, Hoffe have leaked 13 goals (1.63 per game). As a result of their weakened defence without Vorsah, there has been an increase in the number of matches with over 2.5 goals; from 43% with him to 68% without.
With Hoffenheim’s defence substantially weakened this week it’s hard to see them repeating last weeks clean sheet and there looks to be value in backing over 2.5 goals at 1.97.
