DAQMAN on Tuesday
That Nigel Twiston-Davies and Carl Llewellyn would be a formidable partnership was always on the cards; that they would be formidable at Aintree is like being dealt an ace and a king in pontoon and asking: should I have a bet? The Cheltenham trainer has saddled two National winners in the last 12 years, the last one ridden by Llewellyn who, himself, has won it twice, and Razor Royale’s Racing Post Chase success posted a warning for the April renewal from a a race which produced Rhyme ‘N Reason and Rough Quest to score at Aintree in 1988 and 1996. Another Racing Post portend might have proved profitable at Aintree but the 2007 scorer, Simon, a good second at Bechers second time round, was in-running favourite when parting company with Andrew Thornton at the 25th (Valentines). Razor Royale has an ideal rating for Aintree, set to carry 10st 7lb as the weights stand now. His sire, Oscar, has got quality and consistency in his sons, Big Zeb and Black Jack Ketchum, who landed eight wins in a row; his dam is by Strong Gale, which marks him down for serious stamina. Razor Royale, trading at 54.0 for the National on Betdaq as I write, is one of seven Twiston-Davies entries in next Tuesday’s William Hill Trophy at Cheltenham. A lot depends on what happens there: Cheltenham winners – Seagram (1991) excepted – don’t go on to Aintree glory; the races are too close. Meanwhile, his trainer can land a ‘National’ at Exeter today with Petite Margot, a prolific winning mare, yet 12.0 on the Daq as I write on account of some moderate recent runs on soft ground after a lay-off. Her secret is a sounder surface: when restricted to good-to-soft or better ground, her form figures in the last 28 months become 121202. She missed all last year but is fit again now and, after two runs back on the soft, is blinkered for the first time today in the Devon National (3.30). Bob Buckler is another good trainer of stayers and Crank Hill was giving lumps of weight to the first two when third over 3m 3f at Taunton in January. The Alners run three, including their Marathon winner at this venue in the mud, Present M’Lord – second in this last year – but he’s failed to carry the penalty twice since then and this is different ground. Of his stablemates, Macmar has been campaigned over shorter but Ibberton, pulled up on soft last time, is a firm-surface winner over course and distance, racing off a handy mark. It depends how much the terrain has dried out; whether it remains ‘sticky’: but, whatever, last year’s winner on soft, chancy jumper Teeming Rain, may not be so effective, though he showed his first hint of form since, with a staying on third over 3m 6f at Bangor a month ago. Lavenoak Lad, who split Present M’Lord and Newbay Bob in the Marathon, and was a winning mudlark last time, may also be inconvenienced by the change in the weather. Richard Rowe is talking up Helm (form of recent run boosted) as a stayer but whether the ‘one pace’ of his last two chase places over shorter means ‘stayer’ or ‘plodder’ remains to be seen. He’s won a couple of hurdles, so has some speed, but that was more than three years ago. Over The Creek, yet another David Pipe runner high in the weights, would have to be transformed by the blinkers; By George’s form figures suggest the step up in trip will help, but he’s error prone; I once saw Plum Pudding ploughing resolutely up the Towcester hill so a staying may be his game. There’s still plenty of mud around on Tyneside but it’s no longer sticking to the Geordie Championship leaders – home and hosed, lads – and I fancy a bit each way on heavy-ground winner Letterpress (3.50) in his first handicap; the mark looks lenient. Spic ‘N Span (2.10) at 8.0, as I write, should get a flyer from the one draw at Southwell and looks the back-and-lay but Sir Nod, who’s won five class-4 races, is a big price at 5.4, dropped in class to end Where’s Reiley’s course run: if you think there’s more life left in Reiley, back him in running as he’ll be a much bigger price from his rear view of the early stages. Jimmy Quinn is an interesting booking for Royal Envoy (5.40), who should get the pace he needs for a trainer in form. Down 10lb below his last winning mark but 14.5 this morning.
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Tuesday 9 MarchThe rest is here:
DAQMAN on Tuesday
Laying Sport on the Betting Exchanges Laysport.com
