General Election Betting: Five reasons to buy Lib Dem Seats
He may have said he won’t be the kingmaker in the election but Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrat party have the chance to make serious inroads at the General Election, says Nick Clegg.
“Just as Charles Kennedy was rewarded for his contrarian stance on the Iraq war, so Vince Cable has been lauded as ‘the man who foresaw the credit crunch’.”
1- They should benefit from extra media coverage
The current party seats line has the Lib Dems at 53.5-54.5, representing a predicted net loss of nine seats from their current tally. That negative picture is based on recent polling evidence recording a dip since 2005, but punters should beware taking too much notice at this early stage, as they usually pick up during the election campaign. As this timeline of ICM polls shows, they have tended to improve by around 2% in the couple of months preceding an election.
This late improvement is almost certainly down to the fact they receive much greater media coverage than usual during the campaign, and that effect could be multiplied now with the invention of televised leaders’ debates. It’s impossible to underestimate what an opportunity this is for Nick Clegg, being granted an equal footing to Brown and Cameron.
2- Vince Cable
There’s little doubt that the economy will be the central issue of this election and as a recent marginals poll illustrates, the Lib Dems hold the strongest card on this subject. Just as Charles Kennedy was rewarded for his contrarian stance on the Iraq war, so Vince Cable has been lauded as ‘the man who foresaw the credit crunch’.
Whereas few outside Westminster had heard of him beforehand, most media outlets turn immediately to Cable for commentary on all economic matters now. Even the other parties sometimes defer to his wisdom. It also can only help that Vince has revealed his human side by appearing on Strictly Come Dancing, cementing his status as one of the few likeable, respected politicians around.
3- Nick Clegg looks a good media performer
Clegg’s performance in the televised debates could make or break his career, and his party’s chances. He will never have enjoyed an opportunity to communicate directly with so many voters. If he drops a clanger, it could finish him, but if he is perceived to win the debate, their poll ratings could fly.
So far, so promising in this regard. Clegg is generally quite impressive at PMQs, and there was great cause for optimism in one of the few publicised attempts to measure these communication skills. US pollster Frank Luntz has conducted a series of focus groups for Newsnight, the first of which was pivotal in smoothing Cameron’s progress to the Tory leadership. When a group of swing voters were shown clips of the three party leaders in 2008, Clegg’s reception was remarkable. At the beginning, virtually nobody in the 30-strong group had heard of him, yet after watching two clips he’d won over the vast majority.
4- They are obvious beneficiaries of the rising tide ‘anti-politics’.
Quite simply, with the possible exception of the early 1980s when Labour’s civil war forced the creation of the SDP, there has never been a better opportunity for the third party. The combined tally of Labour and Conservative voters has been reducing for decades, down from 97% in 1951 to just 68% in 2005. The public are furious with the political establishment over the MPs expenses scandal, and after the deepest recession since WW2, the overwhelming mood suggests its ‘time for a change’. Moreover, polls indicate that the presumed recipient of that mood, David Cameron, has yet to seal the deal with voters.
Clegg should also take inspiration from another recent third party ‘change’ candidate, who managed to complicate another not dissimilar traditional Left/Right contest. In the 2007 French Presidential elections, the ‘centrist’ Francois Bayrou capitalised on a similar ‘anti-politics’ mood to make serious inroads into the core support of Sarkozy and Royal, despite being disadvantaged by the lack of a party machine.
5- Where’s the downside?
It is true that the Lib Dems are vulnerable to a Tory comeback, but just how many seats can they be expected to lose? They already have 63, and even the most confident Tories are talking about an upper-limit of about 20 gains from them. Given the Lib Dems’ strong reputation in the local campaigning department, and ability to attract anti-Tory tactical votes, it will probably be less than that. Many of these pivotal seats are discussed further in my ‘Fifty seats that will decide the election’ series http://betting.betfair.com/specials/politics-betting/uk-politics/general-election-betting/general-election-betting-fifty-seats-that-will-decide-the-el-1-050310.html.
They can also expect to make gains at Labour’s expense that should at least cover most of any other losses. In many inner-city constituencies, in Labour strongholds like Newcastle, Sheffield, Hull, Liverpool and even parts of London, the Lib Dems have become the default alternative. By my reckoning, a disastrous night would see the Lib Dems getting 50 seats, whereas a great one could see them getting 75+.
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