Category: Timeform

Kempton Placepot: Wednesday 7th April

Not one of the four Flat meetings today looks an easy Placepot target but Kempton, a track that the team has become very familiar with in recent months, probably makes the most appeal. 5:30 – Nothing original in the first, but both Plymouth Rock and Absinthe stand out a mile as two lightly-raced sorts, still on the up when last seen, amongst a group of fully exposed rivals, so it’s difficult to envisage a first-leg exit with both on side. 6:00 – The second leg needs keeping simple too, with the sole newcomer making little appeal and the ones at the head of the market, Swindler and Musical Mark , the only ones with any worthwhile form to their name. 6:30 – Leg three strikes as a real potential stumbling block, but, equally, will contribute to a larger payout than the majority of evening meetings at this track. As the one with the most solid form Port Hill has to be the first selection, a repeat performance of his last two starts (when filling the runner-up spot) sure to see him thereabouts, though the feeling is that he’s vulnerable to improvers with Red Amy looking one with the most potential in the race and Mick Channon’s Tallawalla on a good mark now if she can build on the promise of her two-year-old efforts. 7:00 – Gracious Melange’s winning debut at this track was full of promise but, at such a short price in a race where so many have the potential for better, she’s worth opposing.

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Timeform Race to Watch: Monday 5th April, Yarmouth 1:45

Although very early in the season, the opening race at Yarmouth on Bank Holiday Monday, a maiden race run over a mile, looks sure to throw up winners. The pace was sound and there is every reason to take a positive view of the form with the first half of the field all shaping with varying degrees of promise. “ Admission , who had already been gelded before his debut, ruling out the Classics, produced an eye-catching performance to suggest that he will be fast-tracked to pattern company sooner rather than later.” Admission , who had already been gelded before his debut, ruling out the Classics, produced an eye-catching performance to suggest that he will be fast-tracked to pattern company sooner rather than later. He seemed to do everything well within himself and was soon clear under a hand ride from jockey Hayley Turner. Admission’s breeding suggests that he will be suited by further in time, but, he showed that he wasn’t lacking speed over a mile. It would be easy to be disappointed with Clockmaker’s performance, given he was sent off a short-priced favourite to score at the second time of asking

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Kentucky Derby 2010: Breeders’ Cup build-up starts here – get watching!

Simon Rowlands’ new job involves watching lots of US racing and he’s found there’s plenty to get excited about “It has also been fascinating to follow the US build-up to the Kentucky Derby, the first leg of their Triple Crown and due to be run on Saturday May 1: it knocks the low-key start to the British and Irish season into a cocked hat.” My day job currently involves me in developing a US form product for Timeform and Betfair, something which has taken me into an area of racing with which I had only a passing familiarity previously. It is proving to be fascinating to find out how automated ratings apply to racing under very different circumstances (pretty well to date), how the principles of time and sectional analysis hold up (ditto) and what are the special local conditions that dictate winners and losers (I have plenty still to learn). It has also been fascinating to follow the US build-up to the Kentucky Derby , the first leg of their Triple Crown and due to be run on Saturday May 1: it knocks the low-key start to the British and Irish season into a cocked hat. Within about an hour on Saturday evening there were three major trials: the Wood Memorial (in which Eskendereya was very impressive) in the East; the Santa Anita Derby (won by Sidney’s Candy, getting the run of things somewhat) in the West; and the Illinois Derby (American Lion looks a lively outsider for Kentucky after posting a decent time from the front) somewhere in between.

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The truth about Cheltenham form at Aintree

Does a strong Festival performance translate from Gloucestershire to Merseyside? Simon Rowlands looked at the figures “My advice for Aintree is to lay horses that are underpriced and to back those that are overpriced after considering each case on its merits.

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Timeform 1-2-3: April 7th

Heading into the Grand National meeting at Aintree it’s an all-Flat affair on Wednesday and the Timeform Free Form Service have picked one out from each of the three afternoon meetings. Parc des Princes looked a reformed character last term, and having been gelded, he can win more races this season.. The feature race at Nottingham is the listed Further Flight Stakes, named after the popular grey who became the first horse ever to win the same pattern race (the Jockey Club Cup at Newmarket) five years in a row from 1991 to 1995. Further Flight’s trainer was Barry Hills, who is represented by leading contender Tastahil, but for all that horse has conditions to suit, it’s very hard to look past Opinion Poll (3.50) , who looks the type who could become a force in pattern races this year for Michael Jarvis. The lightly-raced Opinion Poll goes well in the mud, and signed off his 3-y-o campaign with an impressive success in a competitive Ascot handicap.

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Timeform Daily: Wednesday, Nottingham 3:50

We travel to Robin Hood Country where a listed contest highlights an eight-race card at Nottingham… “ Opinion Poll is a progressive performer who is effective in the mud. He signed off 2009 with an impressive success in an Ascot handicap, and he could be a pattern performer before this season is out.” Ajaan has never been one to put total faith in, but he held his form well throughout a light campaign in 2009, beaten just a neck in the Chester Cup. He needs a few to misfire here, but he goes well fresh so he is considered.

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Irish Racing: Wednesday 7th April

Timeform’s Billy Nash gives you three recommendations for racing in Ireland on Wednesday… “ Sicilian Secret may well be sent off at a very short price for this maiden hurdle, largely because of his lofty home reputation rather than anything he has done on the track, and he is worth opposing in a race where there are plenty of viable alternatives.” Fairyhouse 2:45 – Win Lay – Sicilian Secret Sicilian Secret may well be sent off at a very short price for this maiden hurdle, largely because of his lofty home reputation rather than anything he has done on the track, and he is worth opposing in a race where there are plenty of viable alternatives. He was an impressive winner of a steadily-run 7-runner bumper at Leopardstown on his debut but hasn’t really gone on as expected since and the form of the maiden hurdle he finished second in at Cork in November is nothing out of the ordinary. His pedigree suggests he won’t be seen to best effect until tackling 2½m+ and the likes of Benash, Taking Stock and The Big Boyo won’t make life easy for him here. Fairyhouse 3:45 – Win Back – Smoking Aces Prince Erik finished 4½ lengths in front of Smoking Aces in the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham and is 5 lb better off with Tom Taaffe’s charge now, but there is reason to believe that Smoking Aces may be able to turn around that form with conditions in his favour. He ran a shade freely in first-time cheekpieces at Cheltenham and will be more at home on this softer ground. He tends to hit a flat spot in his races but that won’t worry Tony McCoy. Fairyhouse 4:45 – Win Back – Rock Diplomat Rock Diplomat has been a very frustrating horse to follow over fences but this represents a drop in class for him and he probably deserves one more chance.

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Timeform Radio Racing Tips: Two bets from Terry Norman

Catterick and Nottingham runners merit a bet today 14:10 Catterick Half the battle in claimers is finding a horse that wants to win. Finding one that also has the best form and the highest rating is similar to discovering ‘ the meaning of life ‘. Kingswinford has all these in this 7f contest. Needing the run after a five-month absence, David Evans has dropped the 78-rated gelding to a claimer after a decent performance in a Class 4 handicap at Folkestone.

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The Timeform Grand National Guide: Trends to look out for

Timeform highlight some Grand National patterns which punters will want to study before placing their bets on Saturday’s big race… “Any number of hypotheses have been bandied about, and it should be pointed out at this early stage that not colours of horses, gender of rider nor prettiness of silks have any tangible historical bearing on who wins the world’s most famous steeplechase” The unparalleled test provided by the Grand National- the race unique with regards its distance and one of only five run over the famous Aintree spruce fences- has lent itself more than any other to trend analysis by novices and professionals alike down the years . Any number of hypotheses have been bandied about, and it should be pointed out at this early stage that not colours of horses, gender of rider nor prettiness of silks have any tangible historical bearing on who wins the world’s most famous steeplechase. So which trends are worth following? Stamina is clearly a good place to start, the National being longer than any other race in the British calendar .

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Big-Race Perspective: Powers Gold Cup Chase

Timeform share their Perspective entries for the Grade 1 Powers Gold Cup which took place at Fairyhouse on Sunday… “A race which was in stark contrast to last year’s renewal, that run at a crawl on firmish ground, this a real slog, with Let Yourself Go bowling along at a good clip, and only two were left in contention when Zaarito fell three out. “ A race which was in stark contrast to last year’s renewal, that run at a crawl on firmish ground, this a real slog, with Let Yourself Go bowling along at a good clip, and only two were left in contention when Zaarito fell three out. JADANLI was well suited by the thorough test at this trip and pulled off a shock, one which suggests his third in the Galmoy Hurdle hadn’t flattered him after all, jumping economically towards the head of the main group, closing when making his only significant error four out and staying on within a length of Zaarito when that one left him clear three out. He was likely to have won anyway, but everything went his way and he’ll need to up his game further in order to make an impact at graded level next term

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