Number-cruncher supreme “Magic” Matthew Walton goes through the record books and the stats to tell us how to approach the Champions League second legs…
“As losers in the first leg of their ties the figures suggest, and do so quite strongly, that each of Real Madrid, Arsenal, Fiorentina and Chelsea (all group winners) are under a major threat of elimination.”
Let’s start with a look at the statistics. In the past five years there have been 40 ties played in the R16 of the Champions League.
Of those 40 ties, on 21 occasions the team who won the first leg has gone on to win the tie outright and progress through to the QF’s – which, by the same token, means that 21 times the team who lost the first leg has been eliminated from the competition.
What we also find is a mere four sides, that’s all, who in the past five seasons have lost the first leg but have come back to win the second leg and so win the tie outright.