Wednesday 14 April DAQMAN? GUINEAS TRIALS START HERE: Newmarket and Newbury in the next few days will open doors to the Classics, with some shocks expected after the hard winter. RACE-BY-RACE GUIDE: Daqman takes you through the opening day card at Headquarters, with some insight into what is expected
Tuesday 13 April IRELAND’S EYE Exeter provides the jumping action today while the flat action is at Yarmouth and Pontefract. In Ireland Limerick stages a twilight flat meeting with all of the top yards saddling plenty off runners. Our focus will mainly be on the National Hunt action however and a former point winner can provide the answer to a competitive handicap hurdle while at Limerick a Pat Flynn trained runner can spring a mild surprise in the closing maiden. Narrow winner Robin De Sherwood (13/2-11/2) ‘saved our bacon’ yesterday in the closing hunter chase at Sedgefield but was something of a frustrating day otherwise.? Saver Floreana (7/2) looked set for victory in an earlier hunter chase from our nap Dix Villez (3-5/2) but she declined the last and to add insult to injury the latter was outstayed by one of the ‘rags’ close home. The Phillip Hobbs team are in full flow at present and it could be rewarding to row in with their representative Penylan Star in the 2m 7 1/2f novice hurdle at Exeter today at 2-40.
Richard Aikman believes we could see goals galore in the second leg of this hotly contested quarter-final between two Spanish teams. “Over 2.5 goals is a miserly 1.66 but over 3.5 is a more appealing 2.64 ; when you consider that Valencia hit four in their last away match in this competition a goal fiesta is not out of the question.” As the 2-2 first leg at Mestalla proved there is little to separate these two exciting sides, but we can at least rely on the goals to flow Thursday’s eagerly awaited Spanish derby. The last three UEFA Europa League matches involving these attacking outfits have produced an impressive 16 goals, and the 3-0 home victories for each at the weekend underlined their attacking nature. Valencia strengthened their hold on third place in La Liga by overcoming Osasuna thanks to second-half strikes by Joaquin and David Villa (twice), while Atlético saw off Deportivo La Coruña after Juanito, Diego Forlan and Tiago each scored for the hosts.
The German side travel to Belgium with a narrow advantage on Thursday night but are they overly reliant on their classy Dutch striker? Richard Aikman selects the best bets for what should be an absorbing clash. “Both sides have nothing else to play so each are expected to throw caution to the wind. That makes over 2.5 goals an appealing bet at 1.92 .” Hamburg hold a slender advantage from the first leg but Standard’s away goal and strong home record in Europe will leave them full of confidence for the return leg in Belgium. Dieudonné Mbokani gave the visitors the lead last week with a powerful header before two quick-fire replies nudged Hamburg ahead.
Andrew Atherley picks out some FA Cup semi-final scoring patterns and tells us why fans of Hull and Burnley have plenty of reasons to be optimistic about their chances of avoiding the drop. “Either of those scenarios would see a re-evaluation of the Relegation 2009/10 odds, and recent history shows it is not too late for a seemingly doomed team to escape the drop.” FA Cup patterns become more set in the later rounds of the competition, and there are a couple of trends worth noting for this weekend’s semi-finals. Here’s one pattern: 1-0, 1-0, 1-0, 1-0 – that’s the string of results in the last four semi-finals contested by two teams from outside the established big four of English football. It’s a small sample of results, but it might just be a sign of how careful teams become when they can sense what might be a once-in-a-career chance of reaching an FA Cup final. That impression is backed up by results in all semi-finals involving a pair of non-big four teams since the mid-1990s – seven out of nine had under 2.5 goals (in fact, all of those seven had under 1.5 goals) and the only ones that went over 2.5 goals had a lower-league team on the losing side. Sunday’s Tottenham v Portsmouth semi-final will be a low-scoring affair if it conforms to the pattern, but that goes against market expectation
Tobias Gourlay sees new arrivals helping Bangalore get stronger and stronger as the tournament goes on. Venue and Conditions Thursday’s only IPL game takes place at the M
Nick Shiambouros has a short term laying strategy for Dwight Howard’s Orlando Magic – who have the championship in their eyes and not the final few games of the season “The limited playing time of Orlando center Dwight Howard is another reason to oppose the Magic. Howard is the cornerstone of this team and it is unlikely he will play a lot of minutes. Coach Van Gundy will want him healthy and rested before the playoffs begin.” The Orlando Magic look certain to finish the season in second place in the Eastern Conference. The Magic are 4.5 games ahead of third placed Atlanta with only five games left to play in the regular season. Lebron’s Cleveland have already finished first in the Conference. In short, Orlando have nothing left to play for until the start of the playoffs later this month . Coach Stan Van Gundy’s only concern at the moment is the health of his team. He will not risk playing his starting rotation for long minutes in meaningless games and that could give Betfair punters an edge
Timeform’s Billy Nash gives you three recommendations for racing in Ireland on Wednesday… “ Sicilian Secret may well be sent off at a very short price for this maiden hurdle, largely because of his lofty home reputation rather than anything he has done on the track, and he is worth opposing in a race where there are plenty of viable alternatives.” Fairyhouse 2:45 – Win Lay – Sicilian Secret Sicilian Secret may well be sent off at a very short price for this maiden hurdle, largely because of his lofty home reputation rather than anything he has done on the track, and he is worth opposing in a race where there are plenty of viable alternatives. He was an impressive winner of a steadily-run 7-runner bumper at Leopardstown on his debut but hasn’t really gone on as expected since and the form of the maiden hurdle he finished second in at Cork in November is nothing out of the ordinary. His pedigree suggests he won’t be seen to best effect until tackling 2½m+ and the likes of Benash, Taking Stock and The Big Boyo won’t make life easy for him here. Fairyhouse 3:45 – Win Back – Smoking Aces Prince Erik finished 4½ lengths in front of Smoking Aces in the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham and is 5 lb better off with Tom Taaffe’s charge now, but there is reason to believe that Smoking Aces may be able to turn around that form with conditions in his favour. He ran a shade freely in first-time cheekpieces at Cheltenham and will be more at home on this softer ground. He tends to hit a flat spot in his races but that won’t worry Tony McCoy. Fairyhouse 4:45 – Win Back – Rock Diplomat Rock Diplomat has been a very frustrating horse to follow over fences but this represents a drop in class for him and he probably deserves one more chance.
A tip from the Joker to get your betting day under way… The Joker’s Bet of the Day: Back Marseille/Marseille at 2.0 v Sochaux Wacker Innsbruck couldn’t be relied on for any of their usual away goals yesterday evening, but Rheindorf Altach were most obliging in scoring three at the other end, all of which were just enough for a happy Tuesday. The Joker’s found a stray Ligue One match for tonight’s entertainment and, even better, some good reasons to have a punt on it. Marseille have won five of their last six home games and scored within 45 minutes of the same proportion. Sochaux , meanwhile, have hardly scored at all on the road – two goals in their last 10. Which means if Marseille score early, they’re likely to hang on to their lead, so the full-time result should be the same as the half-time result, just as it has been in all five of Sochaux’s most recent away games. You’ve got all of that, right? Recommendation: Back Marseille/Marseille at 2.0 v Sochaux
James Eastham explains why the absence of a certain Manchester United striker is arguably a bigger factor than the involvement of 22 other players in the game. Best bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.16 . Recommended bets: Manchester Utd v Bayern Munich under 2.5 goals @ 2.16 ; Manchester United to win 1-0 and 2-0 @ 9.2 and 10.0 respectively.
