Sunday 11 April DAQMAN? HOW TO MAKE A FORTUNE BACKING 381 LOSERS: Betdaq lays king Daqman celebrated a landmark yesterday, reaching a total of 500 lays since his column began: 381 have been successful, all exclusive to Betdaq. CONSISTENT 76% RAKES IN 1,898 POINTS PROFIT: His current sequence is on 16 out of 21 after Aintree yesterday for a 76% strike rate, which almost exactly tallies with his overall record
Andrew Atherley picks out some FA Cup semi-final scoring patterns and tells us why fans of Hull and Burnley have plenty of reasons to be optimistic about their chances of avoiding the drop. “Either of those scenarios would see a re-evaluation of the Relegation 2009/10 odds, and recent history shows it is not too late for a seemingly doomed team to escape the drop.” FA Cup patterns become more set in the later rounds of the competition, and there are a couple of trends worth noting for this weekend’s semi-finals. Here’s one pattern: 1-0, 1-0, 1-0, 1-0 – that’s the string of results in the last four semi-finals contested by two teams from outside the established big four of English football. It’s a small sample of results, but it might just be a sign of how careful teams become when they can sense what might be a once-in-a-career chance of reaching an FA Cup final. That impression is backed up by results in all semi-finals involving a pair of non-big four teams since the mid-1990s – seven out of nine had under 2.5 goals (in fact, all of those seven had under 1.5 goals) and the only ones that went over 2.5 goals had a lower-league team on the losing side. Sunday’s Tottenham v Portsmouth semi-final will be a low-scoring affair if it conforms to the pattern, but that goes against market expectation
This evening’s market movers from Kempton… Kempton 5.30 Absinthe 4.3 into 3.5 Plymouth Rock 4.1 into 3.1 6.00 Musical Mark 5.4 into 3.6 7.00 Gracious Melange 3.7 into 2.8 Dream On Buddy 4.4 out to 7.4 Totally Ours 15.5 into 11.0 7.30 Cold Turkey 3.24 into 2.86 8.00 King’s Song 4.5 into 2.42 Franco Is My Name 4.0 out to 4.8 Rowan Tiger 7.5 out to 10.0 8.30 Take My Hand 9.2 into 4.8 Ballyvonane 10.0 into 7.8 9.00 Sunrise Lyric 5.8 into 4.3
Not one of the four Flat meetings today looks an easy Placepot target but Kempton, a track that the team has become very familiar with in recent months, probably makes the most appeal. 5:30 – Nothing original in the first, but both Plymouth Rock and Absinthe stand out a mile as two lightly-raced sorts, still on the up when last seen, amongst a group of fully exposed rivals, so it’s difficult to envisage a first-leg exit with both on side. 6:00 – The second leg needs keeping simple too, with the sole newcomer making little appeal and the ones at the head of the market, Swindler and Musical Mark , the only ones with any worthwhile form to their name. 6:30 – Leg three strikes as a real potential stumbling block, but, equally, will contribute to a larger payout than the majority of evening meetings at this track. As the one with the most solid form Port Hill has to be the first selection, a repeat performance of his last two starts (when filling the runner-up spot) sure to see him thereabouts, though the feeling is that he’s vulnerable to improvers with Red Amy looking one with the most potential in the race and Mick Channon’s Tallawalla on a good mark now if she can build on the promise of her two-year-old efforts. 7:00 – Gracious Melange’s winning debut at this track was full of promise but, at such a short price in a race where so many have the potential for better, she’s worth opposing.
Tobias Gourlay sees new arrivals helping Bangalore get stronger and stronger as the tournament goes on. Venue and Conditions Thursday’s only IPL game takes place at the M
The Punter thinks it’s time to leave Tiger alone, but does he think he can win? Read his US Masters preview here…. “Chad has shown a real aptitude for Augusta and already has a second and third place to his name. He’s also playing fairly well at present and if I was to pick one player I’d be most confident of a good showing at a fair price, he’d be the one.” The wait is almost over and we’re now just hours away from one of the most eagerly awaited golf tournaments of all time, and the big question is… Why isn’t Tano Goya defending his Madeira Open title? What do you mean you don’t care? If I’m honest nor do I, though I will be backing my ole mate Jorge Campillo in Madeira…But of course, this week is all about one event and maybe even one man… The US Masters has a really strange feel about it this year, and has done for months for me, I really haven’t had a strong feel or fancy for the event at any stage, and with just a day to go before kick-off I still feel like that. Anyway that’s enough negativity; let’s start in the obvious place, with Tiger Woods… It was really good to see his press conference go so well on Monday; I was starting to get a bit fed up with the constant bad press he was getting
Our regular US golf watcher Dan Geraghty picks his trio to trust at the Masters “I’d be genuinely surprised if McIlroy’s not in the top half dozen here and would advise backing him in the top GB & Ireland market as well as outright.” I would likely follow Phil Mickelson over a cliff and I’m not going to stop now.
A disappointing effort on campaign debut saw Pipe’s 7yo backed at enormous odds but last month’s Cheltenham second has attracted the backers and favouritism beckons “The Package has been matched at all rates downwards from 630.0 on Betfair – with one punter getting 50p at 820.0 – and he could well head the market on Saturday after a very promising second at the Cheltenham Festival.” The Package kicked off the current campaign being beaten at 1.57 in a 2m4f Beginners’ Chase at Ludlow in October, attracting some unfavourable comments about his attitude into the bargain.
James Eastham explains why the absence of a certain Manchester United striker is arguably a bigger factor than the involvement of 22 other players in the game. Best bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.16 . Recommended bets: Manchester Utd v Bayern Munich under 2.5 goals @ 2.16 ; Manchester United to win 1-0 and 2-0 @ 9.2 and 10.0 respectively.
Tobias Gourlay isn’t entirely convinced that Tuesday’s early Champions League quarter-final is worth an afternoon off work. Recommended Bets: Back 0-0 Correct Score at 9.2 ; back the Draw at 3.3 Internazionale take a 1-0 lead to the Luzhniki Stadium for the second leg of their Champions League tie with CSKA Moscow. The Italian champions had enough possession last week to have garnered more of an advantage, but now need to be extra careful of a long journey (so long that this match will kick-off early at 1730 BST on Tuesday), a synthetic pitch and well-rested opponents (CSKA’s weekend league match with Zenit St Petersburg was called off for security reasons). Even though CSKA defender Aleksei Berezutski puts his team’s chance of qualification at 45%, the market makes Jose Mourinho’s team 1.16 to qualify for a semi final with Arsenal or Barcelona. A goal in Russia would leave the hosts needing three and one wonders if the Special One won’t make like he did at Stamford Bridge in the last round, when he sent out three strikers and won 1-0. The Nerazzurri have scored fewer goals than any of the other teams still in the competition though and their Portuguese leader has been known to err on the side of caution
